You’ve probably seen the clip by now: what Rep. Eric Burlison described as a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone tracking a shiny orb over the Red Sea region, near Yemen. A missile streaks toward it, there’s a flash — and somehow, the orb keeps going. No explosion, no fireball, just… drifting on.
Some people see this as proof of something extraordinary. But skeptics — like analyst Mick West, who’s known for breaking down UFO videos frame-by-frame — argue it could be something much simpler, maybe even just a balloon.
Section I — What the video really shows
The incident itself was recorded on October 30, 2024, by a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone operating in the Red Sea region, close to Yemen. While it’s often called the ‘Yemen UAP,’ the Pentagon hasn’t confirmed the object was directly over Yemeni territory — it could just as easily have been in international waters. Nearly a year later, on September 9, 2025, the footage was presented at a congressional hearing.
The claim: an MQ-9 Reaper launches a Hellfire missile at an orb-like object, and the missile appears to hit, maybe glance, maybe detonate, maybe fragment — but the orb remains.
Based on congressional testimony and media reporting, we’re told:
• The platform was identified as an MQ-9 Reaper equipped with Electro-Optical/Infrared sensors. The video itself doesn’t display platform-specific markings, so this detail comes from the description, not the imagery alone.
• The weapon was identified as a Hellfire missile — a precision-guided weapon designed for destroying tanks, vehicles, and bunkers.
• The orb is visible, moving steadily over the water, before, during, and after the missile strike.
What’s missing are details such as altitude, exact distance, weather conditions, missile telemetry, and raw sensor metadata. Those gaps leave room for many interpretations.
Section II — Why the clip isn’t conclusive
EO/IR video is powerful, but it has limitations, including glare, bloom, and sensor artifacts. A missile detonation — or even a near miss — can scatter fragments, create flashes, or produce erratic-moving debris, which may resemble a direct hit or even suggest the object was deflected.
Without knowing whether the Hellfire warhead detonated, where the explosion occurred, or how much of the missile impacted, we can’t definitively determine what happened.
Section III — The Hellfire’s track record
And here’s why this gets so much attention: the Hellfire missile is no rookie system.
It’s one of the most combat-tested precision weapons in modern history. First used in the 1980s, it’s been fired thousands of times in Iraq, Afghanistan, Yemen, Somalia, Libya, and beyond — against tanks, bunkers, trucks, and even high-value terrorist targets.
Its reliability is widely trusted. Yes, malfunctions do happen, like any weapon: sometimes a warhead doesn’t detonate, sometimes guidance fails if the laser loses line-of-sight. But statistically, failures are rare. The Hellfire’s reputation is that when it’s fired, it works.
That’s why the Yemen video feels so extraordinary. If a Hellfire really made contact and the target kept drifting along, that would be highly unusual.
Section IV — The balloon hypothesis
Let’s compare the balloon possibility.
Balloons are common UAP candidates because:
• They drift with prevailing winds.
• Appear shiny in EO/IR when reflecting sunlight.
• Move steadily, without sudden acceleration or evasive maneuvers.
And skeptics have leaned hard into this explanation. One of the most vocal is Mick West, a former video game programmer turned prominent UAP analyst and debunker. He’s made a name for himself by carefully dissecting UFO videos and showing how optical effects or sensor quirks can create the illusion of something extraordinary.
West has suggested that what looks like a missile hitting the orb and it “shrugging it off” might actually be parallax — an optical effect caused by the moving drone, which makes objects appear to shift in ways they really aren’t. Others in the skeptic community point out that missiles sometimes fail to detonate, which could also explain why the orb just kept drifting along.
Even in official hearings, UAP investigators have reminded us that plenty of cases turn out to be balloons, drones, or even pranks. So for skeptics, the balloon idea isn’t just possible — it’s the most likely explanation.
But here’s the catch: we don’t know the orb’s altitude or speed from the clip. Without that data, we can’t say for sure. What we do see — steady drift — is consistent with a balloon. But what we don’t know leaves room for more exotic possibilities.
Section V — The “intelligent control” question
Here’s something worth asking: if the orb was under intelligent control, why didn’t it detect the missile or react?
If you were piloting or guiding an advanced vehicle, you’d expect evasive maneuvers. Even simple systems — or animals, for that matter — avoid threats. Yet the orb drifts.
Now, contrast that with NASA’s STS-48 mission footage from 1991. Multiple bright objects are seen drifting near the shuttle. Suddenly, a flash of light appears, and several of those objects scatter or sharply change course.
UFO researchers argue that it looks like evasive movement in response to a projectile. NASA’s explanation? Much simpler: ice particles knocked around by thruster exhaust.
Either way, the contrast is striking. In the STS-48 clip, the objects seem reactive. In Yemen, the orb shows no response at all.
Section VI — Could it be advanced technology? Ufologist perspectives
Now, for those who like to wonder: could this be something truly advanced?
People like George Knapp, a veteran journalist and longtime UFO investigator, point out:
• Some observers interpret the missile as bouncing off the orb. If the warhead functioned properly, that could imply extreme toughness or shielding beyond known human technology.
• There are other videos with similar behavior: objects hovering, accelerating suddenly, or moving without visible propulsion.
• Some suggest that if it’s not human-made, maybe it’s off-world — probes, autonomous devices, or something from another civilization.
And this is where the debate sharpens. Mick West and other skeptics see a balloon and a possible missile malfunction. Knapp and other ufologists see the possibility of advanced technology — maybe even something not of this Earth.
It’s not proof, but it’s precisely this clash of interpretations that keeps the conversation alive.
Section VII — Missile debris/deflection ambiguity
If the missile didn’t malfunction and really impacted the orb, you might expect debris, fragments, or an explosion somewhere.
Publicly available reporting shows:
• Some small debris appears in the video after the flash, but it’s ambiguous whether it’s missile fragments, parts of the orb, or just visual artifacts.
• No confirmed crash site or recovered missile debris has been reported.
• Military and Pentagon sources haven’t clarified if the warhead detonated as intended.
That ambiguity adds to the mystery: we don’t know if the missile missed, detonated ineffectively, or if something unusual really occurred.
Section VIII — What it would take to know for sure
To settle this, we’d need:
• Raw EO/IR footage with complete metadata.
• Missile telemetry and warhead data — did it detonate, at what distance, and with what impact?
• Radar or multi-sensor tracking to confirm speed and altitude.
• Physical debris or recovery.
Without those, we can only speculate. The simplest explanation: a drifting balloon or lightweight object, possibly with a glancing impact. The extraordinary explanation: a craft that can survive a Hellfire missile — perhaps advanced human tech, or something else entirely.
Closing — Wonder + Caution
So could the Yemen orb be alien technology? Could it be something beyond what we know on Earth? Possibly.
But wonder is not proof. And the video also fits the simpler explanations.
Until the military releases the underlying data — things like raw footage, telemetry, or debris analysis — this clip will remain open to interpretation: from a drifting balloon to something far more advanced.
Either way, the takeaway is striking: even the most advanced military sensors and weapons can capture events that challenge our understanding. We’ve got questions, gaps in data, and a fascinating story unfolding.
And maybe that uncertainty — the fact that even trained observers can’t explain what they’re seeing — is the most intriguing part of all.
What do you think — balloon, glitch, or something beyond?
And remember: keep your mind open — because no mystery stays unsolved forever.
